In honor of the 12 days of Christmas: My 12 predictions for the IT Application space in 2012

 

As I lift pen and eggnog, I can’t help but think about things in twelve’s.   I just returned from four consecutive weeks of travel--meeting with our channel, customers and industry analysts and have a head stuffed full of input, anecdotes and prognosis about the business space I occupy – Application Transformation and Application Lifecycle Management (ALM).   So with that mindset, I pitch my tent and roll out what I expect to see around me in 2012.   Disclaimer – these are not brilliant, ground breaking thoughts but rather an assimilation of what I’ve seen, heard and anticipate in the world of Applications for next year:

 

 

My 12 predictions for the world of Applications:

 

 

 

#12:  Mobile will sail to the top priority for all organizations—big and small:  To expand your value as a testing professional – become familiar with mobile platforms and test practices.   At the Gartner Application Architecture, Development and Integration conference primary keynote, the statement was made that smart phones will see a 300% growth in adoption through 2014 and that 108 Billion applications will be downloaded from application stores.  Now, I’m not a betting person, but I would bet my bank account that mobile testing will be the number one topic of interest for QA Managers.  If you want to expand your value as a tester, learn the nuances of mobile platforms, mobile application architecture choices and mobile testing techniques.

 

 

#11:  Agile ALM will become redundant:  Almost every customer I speak with now is implementing Agile methodology for some projects.   Not all projects will fit the Agile model and not all teams are ready but all projects can benefit from the guidance provided byALM.  I expect to see ALM solutions assume Agile and Waterfall not either-or… and it will become redundant to refer to a solution as Agile ALM.

 

 

#10:  Requirements will become “organic”:  At the almost unfathomable rate of change in terms of cycle time and new technology adoption, it will quickly become acutely painful to do requirements the old way.  Gone are the days of creating behemoth static documents for requirements that rarely change.  Requirements will become living pieces of metadata participating in an integrated lifecycle, attached to projects and sprints that organically evolve as the project progresses and continue their life as re-useable artifacts for the next iteration. 

 

 

#9:  User experience testing will go social:  To me, this is one of the “coolest” predictions.  I have heard multiple experts speak about how to harness the social community and ecosystem of citizen developers, testers and users to dynamically test software.  As social networks proliferate, become more secure and cloud implementations allow testing elasticity, I fully expect to see software user experience become a symbiotic relationship between the global landscape of users and the corporate QA teams.

 

 

#8:   Citizen Testers will enable scaling of your test organizations – Part two of prediction #9, I believe that part of QA practice will be to include and plan for use of Citizen testers.  Gartner Research speaks of the Citizen developer meaning that the community will do development of application value on behalf of organizations and I predict a similar dynamic for testing, bringing the QA teams closer to the communities that will use their applications.   Testing user experience, corner-case functionality and unpredictable consumption will all become more economical when able to harness the scale of the user community.

 

 

#7:  The North and South Pole will not shift causing cataclysmic disasters (sorry, had to get that one in there)

 

 

#6:  SOA will have a revival –I’m seeing a resurgence of the fundamentals of SOA as a way to build scalable, elastic, flexible yet reliable and governed Cloud services.  The aspects of loose coupling, policy-based governance, and separation of concerns translate very well to needs of cloud based service delivery.  It’s time for SOA to emerge from the ashes of “old news” to the forefront of cloud architecture best practice.

 

 

#5:  Service virtualization will prove its value – We’ve been hearing the use cases and description of what Service Virtualization can do for Development and Testing teams building composite applications for several years now.  I believe 2012 will be the year of crossing the Service Virtualization chasm (to leverage a concept from Geoffrey Moore’s work).   I expect to see publicized success stories about how development and test organizations realized significant time and cost savings by leveraging virtualized services to develop and test against composite application components and constrained cloud and legacy services.   And I look forward to blogging about them.

 

 

#4:  The Occupy movement will take hold in IT organizations until Dev and Ops teams learn to work together – I had to go there… Organizations want continuous integration and delivery.  Nirvana is for change to be deployed into production at the speed of business need.  But I still see cultural and organizational resistance to bring Development/test organizations and production operations organizations together to break down barriers for faster delivery.   I believe organizations will set up mediation teams to sit between Dev and Ops and drive behavior change, strategy and process to force the effective sharing of information and smoothing of handoffs.  Whether these mediation teams will occupy IT with tents has yet to be seen.

 

 

#3:  Developers and Testers will start to look like two sides of the same coin – composite applications, cloud service architecture and mobile brings a level of exposure to technology that is both deep and intriguing.  Testers have inquiring minds and will want to know what they are testing.  I expect the technical skill level of all to raise, even users.   If my 14 year old is any indication, we will all be programmers before long.

 

 

 #2:  Everyone will think securityZeus, Stuxnet, need I say more?  Security will continue to permeate all aspects of development, testing and delivery readiness.   Software doesn’t deliver if it’s not secure.

 

 

#1:  There will be Cloud—nuff said.

 

 

About the author:  Kelly Emo is Director of Applications product marketing at HP Software, meaning she writes and talks a lot about the cool stuff that applications teams are doing.   With more than 25 years experience in the software industry spanning networking, distributed computing, client-server, Java, SOA, Web 2.0, and now Cloud and Mobile, Kelly has seen the ebbs and flows of technology adoption, trends and successes.  Follow Kelly on Twitter @k_emo, and HP Software ALM @HPSoftwareALM

 

 

 

Comments
Daniel Charlu | ‎01-03-2012 03:32 PM

Kelly,

  I hope you and your family had a terrrific 12 days of Christmas.  I enjoyed reading your 2012 predictions. Last month a successful serial entrepreneur friend mentioned to me that the hot technologies areas to be in are So-Lo-Mo for Social, Local and Mobile (not Do-Re-Mi).  I would say amen and sing it to Cloud 9.

 

Wish you and yours a FANTASTIC 2012!


Daniel

Stan Yanakiev | ‎01-04-2012 01:31 AM

Good predictions, Kelly. I would like to comment on "#10:  Requirements will become “organic” and #11:  Agile ALM will become redundant.

 

Today changes in project does not impact requirements only but touch almost all aspects that were thought once constant: objectives, timeline, team and location of its members, even budget. This means that neither Agile and/or Waterfall taken in isolation can address all this fluidity. We need a holistic approach to projects that incorporates the most appropriate practices in every particular project. What do you think?

Fadi El-Eter | ‎01-05-2012 07:25 AM

I would have moved #12 to #1. I think mobile is the future, and it will overtake the PC as a primary source of Internet traffic if not in 2012 then in 2013. It's amazing how the mobile traffic is growing. I am checking the traffic on one of my important websites and I can see that mobile traffic increased from a mere 1% in the beginning of 2011 to about 10% by its end.

| ‎01-06-2012 11:43 AM

Nice work!  I love #1 (and #4)

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About the Author
Kelly has over 20 years experience with enterprise systems and software in individual contributor and manager roles across product manageme...
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